The Wheels Fall Off…
I started following financial markets during the Asian Financial Crisis. I remember the Fed stepping in as LTCM detonated, and I instantly understood the moral hazard of saving financial institutions from their own stupidity. I watched as the Fed panicked over the Y2K non-crisis, only to blow the internet bubble to stratospheric heights. Since then, […]
What If We Run It Hot…?
In the spring of 2022, Jerome Powell declared war on inflation. With the benefit of hindsight, let’s question what exactly he declared war on? Was he upset that the bottom third were finally getting wage increases for the first time in decades?? Was he upset that cattle ranchers were earning an acceptable return after years […]
What’s Driving Stocks
Friends, Back in March, I wrote a piece about looking for deep value opportunities, driven by changes in market structure. At the time, I noted that pod shops were creating unusual mispricings in equities, as they were operating with a valuation agnostic framework, only chasing rate of change: “In my realm of value investing, I’m […]
U Need to Focus on Term
I’m writing to you from Zurich, after attending the World Nuclear Association (WNA) meeting a few days ago in London. Last year, the meeting took place in the context of a high $50s (per pound) spot uranium price while this year’s meeting took place with a spot price closer to $80. Normally, a positive return […]
It’s JOEtime!!!
View from JOE’s WaterColor Inn Back in June of 2018, I wrote an initial piece on St. Joe (JOE – USA), owner of approximately 175,000 undeveloped acres along with assorted commercial real estate on the Florida Panhandle. My thesis was that the stock was trading at $18 and the land was worth a few times that figure. […]
Hey JOE–Where Ya Goin With That Land Over There…
Friend: Kuppy, stop the car!! Me: Uggh, again? Friend: Let’s get out. Me: We have 177,000 acres to visit. We can’t stop at every damn acre. Friend: Yeah, but not every acre is next to million dollar homes. Me: …A surprising number of them seem to be… It’s already noon and we’ve seen less than […]
