When the Log Rolls Over
Emerging Markets (EMs) are highly fragile. This is due to the fact that usually when there’s a recession, capital flees, the currency melts, inflation increases and interest rates explode, choking businesses, and making the situation far worse than it would otherwise be. To fight this, the local Central Bank often aggressively raises rates, which defends […]
Are DMs now EMs…???
The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” I believe to be successful at this game, one must focus on the unexpected—the tail risks that no one is even thinking about. However, in the echo-chamber that is modern finance, these tails often get […]
