Know Your Enemy

Whenever someone takes the other side of my trade, I want to put myself in their shoes. Is this a worthwhile opponent with a differentiated view?? Am I stepping into a trap?? Or are they doing something for totally uneconomic reasons?? I need to know my enemy. “Yes, I know my enemiesThey’re the teachers who […]

Will ESG Create The Next Lehman Moment…???

Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought little of it—billionaires need hobbies and all. Besides, true billionaire credentials are gained when a squadron of luxury jets arrives to lecture some impoverished country on […]

ESG = Energy Stops Growing

For most of my career, oil demand has grown each year and supply has roughly kept up. Sure, it’s overshot in both directions. We’ve seen shortages and we’ve seen gluts. We’ve even seen oil go negative. Throughout this time, we’ve always intuitively known that the cure for high prices is high prices. Last week may […]

ESG = Excessive Share-price Growth

Two months ago, something rather monumental happened, which seems to have been lost to the news-cycle. In a world starved for yield, a company with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $527 million (cash flow from operations – maintenance cap-ex) and net debt of only $593 million could not re-finance debt due in 2022. Sure, […]