They’re Gonna Choose To Run It Hot…
Liberation Day became Liquidation Day. I’ve noted a few times now, that MAGA is decidedly not bullish US equity prices. In fact, in my year-end posting, I mentioned that for the first time in ages, I was buying downside protection—even shorting individual names. In the days leading up to, and immediately after, Liberation Day, I […]
Watch Bonds…
Emerging Market governments are highly attuned to changes in their bond markets. This is because they risk getting cut off from funding at any sign of stress. Often-times, Emerging Market leaders will do crazy things that appear inexplicable to outside observers. At such a moment, the bond market comes to the forefront, because if bonds […]
The Reallocation
I’m an absolute return investor. I recognize that benchmarks exist, but I also largely ignore them, as I don’t expect my returns to be particularly correlated with any of them. It’s nice to know how others are doing, but it’s also irrelevant to my own investing process. However, every so often, benchmarks matter, and then […]
The Wheels Fall Off…
I started following financial markets during the Asian Financial Crisis. I remember the Fed stepping in as LTCM detonated, and I instantly understood the moral hazard of saving financial institutions from their own stupidity. I watched as the Fed panicked over the Y2K non-crisis, only to blow the internet bubble to stratospheric heights. Since then, […]
What If We Run It Hot…?
In the spring of 2022, Jerome Powell declared war on inflation. With the benefit of hindsight, let’s question what exactly he declared war on? Was he upset that the bottom third were finally getting wage increases for the first time in decades?? Was he upset that cattle ranchers were earning an acceptable return after years […]
The .1% Refugee Crisis Webinar Replay
Borders are open and freedoms are eroding. Taxes are increasing to fund the nanny state. Those with capital are fleeing… Kuppy and global investor Swen Lorenz team up for a 2-hour sweeping discussion and Q&A about the causes of HNW migration and their thoughts on how to benefit from this trend. Originally filmed on August […]
The Culling
I’m known as a hyper-concentrated investor. I take my best ideas, bet them big, and ignore the volatility along the way. While it’s usually my top 5 or so positions that effectively determine my performance results for the year, I also tend to have lots of other positions on the books. These enter the books […]
Bad is Good
We learned from from Zimbabwe that paradoxically, Bad is Good when it comes to the stock market.
The Great Macro Dreamscape Part 1
In late March of 2020, one of the greatest wealth transfers of my lifetime began. It remade our world—or at least it remade my world. Those who recognized Covid as a hoax, were there to reap the rewards. Others who cowered in fear, were my victims. While I pressed the accelerator on exposure and risk, […]
Playing Inflation Part 2
Warren Buffett famously told investors that if they wanted to prosper during periods of inflation, then they needed to buy companies with high returns on capital and pricing power. As a result, it should be no secret why a company like Coca-Cola (KO – USA) trades so richly—it’s being priced as an inflation resistant Treasury, […]
Volcker and Inflation…
For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which may also be a function of how terrible most government functionaries are. As JPOW suddenly pretends that Volcker was his boyhood hero, I think it’s […]
Gas Stimmys…
A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets (paraphrased). Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls. If oil spikes to $200 in 2023, it’s going to take the global economy down with it. You could end up timing it wrong by […]
