The Culling

I’m known as a hyper-concentrated investor. I take my best ideas, bet them big, and ignore the volatility along the way. While it’s usually my top 5 or so positions that effectively determine my performance results for the year, I also tend to have lots of other positions on the books. These enter the books […]

Bad is Good

We learned from from Zimbabwe that paradoxically, Bad is Good when it comes to the stock market.

The Great Macro Dreamscape Part 1

In late March of 2020, one of the greatest wealth transfers of my lifetime began. It remade our world—or at least it remade my world. Those who recognized Covid as a hoax, were there to reap the rewards. Others who cowered in fear, were my victims. While I pressed the accelerator on exposure and risk, […]

Playing Inflation Part 2

Warren Buffett famously told investors that if they wanted to prosper during periods of inflation, then they needed to buy companies with high returns on capital and pricing power. As a result, it should be no secret why a company like Coca-Cola (KO – USA) trades so richly—it’s being priced as an inflation resistant Treasury, […]

Volcker and Inflation…

For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which may also be a function of how terrible most government functionaries are. As JPOW suddenly pretends that Volcker was his boyhood hero, I think it’s […]

Gas Stimmys…

A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets (paraphrased). Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls. If oil spikes to $200 in 2023, it’s going to take the global economy down with it. You could end up timing it wrong by […]

Will Risk Parity Blow Up…???

For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries usually rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset classes seemed to offset each other, creating a smoothed-out return profile, was not lost on certain fund managers who created portfolios comprised of the two. […]

When The Levee Breaks…

If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakIf it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakWhen the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught me to weep and moan, LordMean old levee taught me to weep and moanIt’s got what it takes to make a mountain man leave his […]

On Staying Liquid…

I believe investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often mental. Who cares if it is at 90% of fair value?? Recycle your capital. Why are you in a business with deteriorating numbers?? Recycle your […]

Trading “Project Zimbabwe…”

At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, I believed it was obvious that the equity markets would blast higher—as a result I strapped on as much exposure as I could stomach while remaining a responsible fiduciary. I was […]

“Project Zimbabwe”

Roughly a month ago on the afternoon of Sunday, March 8th, Fed Chairman Powell had an (fictional) emergency staff meeting. Powell: I want the nuttiest money printing plan ever. What action plans do we have that are prepared and ready to initiate? Admin: Well, we have this one named “GFC 2.0” Powell: Sounds tame and sedate. Won’t impress […]