Kuppy's Korner

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Long-time readers of this site know that I prefer an investing style that is both highly-concentrated and hyper-aggressive. My only goal is to maximize returns over rolling three-year periods. As...
As a long-time inflection investor, I’ve learned that many themes simply do not inflect. There are multiple causes for this; often tied to a bad thesis, or a bad set...
It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point...
I know that I touched upon this in Part 2 of this “Fed is Fuct” series, but I just cannot let go of this topic. It is simply too important of a...
The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” I believe to be successful at this game, one must...
I believe the Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver looks severely restricted....
The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash...
Investors like to focus on QE and QT, because of the belief that the quantity of money has an immediate effect on risk assets. In the same way, we like...
I have frequently described “Project Zimbabwe” as a highly inflationary cycle where both fiscal and monetary stimulus go into insanity mode. While I sincerely hope we don’t go hyperinflationary like...
For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which...
Let’s try a thought experiment here. Fast forward into winter. The Fed has been on autopilot and has continued to raise rates. They’ve managed to crush risk assets and the...
The Fed is fuct. I think they know it. We all know it. And it’s likely they know that we know it. They intend to continue the charade anyway. Despite...
It is said that generals always fight the last war. I believe investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in...
For over thirty years, excluding a few brief spikes, copper traded in a range between $0.60 and $1.00 a pound. In many ways, that range became self-fulfilling as an entire...
I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin...
Whenever someone takes the other side of my trade, I want to put myself in their shoes. Is this a worthwhile opponent with a differentiated...
Last summer, I was having lunch with a friend at a plain vanilla shop, who kept checking his phone and muttering, “this NVIDIA is killing...
It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it...
Great!! Another E&P that raised the quarterly dividend by two cents. Who F*cking Cares!!?? The debate about buybacks vs. dividends has been going on for...
It is said that Argentina has an economic crisis roughly every decade, and it seems to last for approximately ten years… In a previous posting,...
In late March of 2020, one of the greatest wealth transfers of my lifetime began. It remade our world—or at least it remade my world....

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