Kuppy's Korner
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It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point...
The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” I believe to be successful at this game, one must...
I believe the Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver looks severely restricted....
The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash...
Investors like to focus on QE and QT, because of the belief that the quantity of money has an immediate effect on risk assets. In the same way, we like...
I have frequently described “Project Zimbabwe” as a highly inflationary cycle where both fiscal and monetary stimulus go into insanity mode. While I sincerely hope we don’t go hyperinflationary like...
For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which...
Let’s try a thought experiment here. Fast forward into winter. The Fed has been on autopilot and has continued to raise rates. They’ve managed to crush risk assets and the...
The Fed is fuct. I think they know it. We all know it. And it’s likely they know that we know it. They intend to continue the charade anyway. Despite...
It is said that generals always fight the last war. I believe investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in...
For over thirty years, excluding a few brief spikes, copper traded in a range between $0.60 and $1.00 a pound. In many ways, that range became self-fulfilling as an entire...
I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin...
People really like to complicate things. They worry about non-problems. They over-trade. They over-think. They ignore the obvious. I believe this investing game is actually quite simple—buy unusually cheap companies...
I’ve been pretty clear on why I think oil is going higher. I’ve also been clear that when oil overshoots, I think it’s going to create the next Lehman moment. Oil...
Liberation Day became Liquidation Day. I’ve noted a few times now, that MAGA is decidedly not bullish US equity prices. In fact, in my year-end posting, I mentioned that for...
Emerging Market governments are highly attuned to changes in their bond markets. This is because they risk getting cut off from funding at any sign of stress. Often-times, Emerging Market...
I’m an absolute return investor. I recognize that benchmarks exist, but I also largely ignore them, as I don’t expect my returns to be particularly correlated with any of them....
I started following financial markets during the Asian Financial Crisis. I remember the Fed stepping in as LTCM detonated, and I instantly understood the moral hazard of saving financial institutions...
In the spring of 2022, Jerome Powell declared war on inflation. With the benefit of hindsight, let’s question what exactly he declared war on? Was he upset that the bottom...
Friends, Back in March, I wrote a piece about looking for deep value opportunities, driven by changes in market structure. At the time, I noted that pod shops were creating...
The Fed Is Fuct (Part 5)…