Kuppy's Korner
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As the owner of a hedge fund business (defined as a management company and incentive fees received though an affiliated entity), I’m always amazed at the returns on capital in...
In my prior article about breakouts, I missed out on a chance to speak about the recent change in market structure, and what it means for all of us as...
This post originally appeared in KEDM on June 4, 2023… “We originally spoke about Argentina back in October of 2021 and said to put it on your radar. We think...
Let me cut to the chase, I can read a chart, but I would almost never invest based on a chart. In fact, I’ve always been baffled by who it...
Nearly 15 years ago, I became one of the first financial bloggers, not because I sought fame, but because I needed a better way to share stock ideas, vacation pictures,...
As a long-time inflection investor, I’ve learned that many themes simply do not inflect. There are multiple causes for this; often tied to a bad thesis, or a bad set...
It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point...
I know that I touched upon this in Part 2 of this “Fed is Fuct” series, but I just cannot let go of this topic. It is simply too important of a...
The history of finance, is basically the history of ruined speculators claiming that “no one could have seen that coming.” I believe to be successful at this game, one must...
I believe the Fed is trapped in a box of their own creation. As a result, they may want to talk tough, but their ability to maneuver looks severely restricted....
The Federal Reserve has been attacking inflation. The problem is that after printing trillions of dollars, they’re ill-equipped to succeed at their task. Partly, this is because all that cash...
Investors like to focus on QE and QT, because of the belief that the quantity of money has an immediate effect on risk assets. In the same way, we like...
I have frequently described “Project Zimbabwe” as a highly inflationary cycle where both fiscal and monetary stimulus go into insanity mode. While I sincerely hope we don’t go hyperinflationary like...
For my entire career, Paul Volcker has been deified. In fact, I cannot think of an unelected government official, since the Generals of WW2, who is held in such esteem—which...
If you’ve spent any amount of time on Twitter, you’ve likely come across the hypothesis that AI will bring an extinction level cataclysm for white collar workers. Instead of having...
Every time tech has one of its periodic moonshots, the same email shows up in my inbox from one of my investors. Some version of: “Kuppy, why don’t we own...
Last month, I chose to strip away all the hubris around AI and ask one simple question, one that oddly no one had really bothered to ask; how much revenue...
I’ve been at this investing game a long time. Long enough to see cycles repeat themselves, cycles that I literally thought I would never again see. Yet in finance, everything...
I Just Don’t Know…