Kuppy's Korner

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It is said that generals always fight the last war. I believe investors do the same, but with a greater sense of PTSD, combined with self-assurance. Often, investors cluster in...
For over thirty years, excluding a few brief spikes, copper traded in a range between $0.60 and $1.00 a pound. In many ways, that range became self-fulfilling as an entire...
I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin...
People really like to complicate things. They worry about non-problems. They over-trade. They over-think. They ignore the obvious. I believe this investing game is actually quite simple—buy unusually cheap companies...
I’ve been pretty clear on why I think oil is going higher. I’ve also been clear that when oil overshoots, I think it’s going to create the next Lehman moment. Oil...
In a few short hours, we’re headed back into the trenches. No sleep for us weary hedgies. They’ve re-set the performance clock at zero and we’ve got to fight our...
Over the past few years, I’ve been highly critical of the Ponzi Sector. This is what I call a whole grouping of companies that has no ability or apparent desire...
A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets (paraphrased). Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls....
I believe the vast majority of publicly traded securities are roughly fairly valued. Sure, there may be a 30% or even 50% variance to fair value, but that’s mostly encapsulated...
For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries usually rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset...
A few years back, I was in NYC for meetings. All of a sudden, it started to pour, absolutely Miami style rain. Miraculously, an umbrella vendor popped out of nowhere...
Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought little...
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakIf it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakWhen the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught...
I believe investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often...
Last summer, I recognized an odd phenomenon. An obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was slowly cornering the free float in Bitcoin. This was a result of...
In Macro investing, it’s critical that I have a roadmap of where we’ve come from and where I think we’re going. Of course, many things...
Last year, I wrote Part 1 of The Great Macro Dreamscape (Part 2 is coming). To summarize, my view is that the coming decade will...
We learned from from Zimbabwe that paradoxically, Bad is Good when it comes to the stock market.
Whenever someone takes the other side of my trade, I want to put myself in their shoes. Is this a worthwhile opponent with a differentiated...
Last summer, I was having lunch with a friend at a plain vanilla shop, who kept checking his phone and muttering, “this NVIDIA is killing...
It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it...

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