Kuppy's Korner

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People really like to complicate things. They worry about non-problems. They over-trade. They over-think. They ignore the obvious. I believe this investing game is actually quite simple—buy unusually cheap companies...
I’ve been pretty clear on why I think oil is going higher. I’ve also been clear that when oil overshoots, I think it’s going to create the next Lehman moment. Oil...
In a few short hours, we’re headed back into the trenches. No sleep for us weary hedgies. They’ve re-set the performance clock at zero and we’ve got to fight our...
Over the past few years, I’ve been highly critical of the Ponzi Sector. This is what I call a whole grouping of companies that has no ability or apparent desire...
A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets (paraphrased). Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls....
I believe the vast majority of publicly traded securities are roughly fairly valued. Sure, there may be a 30% or even 50% variance to fair value, but that’s mostly encapsulated...
For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries usually rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset...
A few years back, I was in NYC for meetings. All of a sudden, it started to pour, absolutely Miami style rain. Miraculously, an umbrella vendor popped out of nowhere...
Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought little...
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakIf it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakWhen the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught...
I believe investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often...
Last summer, I recognized an odd phenomenon. An obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was slowly cornering the free float in Bitcoin. This was a result of...
For most of my career, oil demand has grown each year and supply has roughly kept up. Sure, it’s overshot in both directions. We’ve seen shortages and we’ve seen gluts....
At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, I believed it was obvious that...
Ever since GameStop (GME – USA) pulled off a Melvinator, I have had various short vol GME option trades on. Often, this was some combination of deep out of the...
Whenever someone takes the other side of my trade, I want to put myself in their shoes. Is this a worthwhile opponent with a differentiated...
Last summer, I was having lunch with a friend at a plain vanilla shop, who kept checking his phone and muttering, “this NVIDIA is killing...
It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it...
Great!! Another E&P that raised the quarterly dividend by two cents. Who F*cking Cares!!?? The debate about buybacks vs. dividends has been going on for...
It is said that Argentina has an economic crisis roughly every decade, and it seems to last for approximately ten years… In a previous posting,...
In late March of 2020, one of the greatest wealth transfers of my lifetime began. It remade our world—or at least it remade my world....

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