Kuppy's Korner
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Over the past few years, I’ve been highly critical of the Ponzi Sector. This is what I call a whole grouping of companies that has no ability or apparent desire...
A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets (paraphrased). Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls....
I believe the vast majority of publicly traded securities are roughly fairly valued. Sure, there may be a 30% or even 50% variance to fair value, but that’s mostly encapsulated...
For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries usually rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset...
A few years back, I was in NYC for meetings. All of a sudden, it started to pour, absolutely Miami style rain. Miraculously, an umbrella vendor popped out of nowhere...
Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought little...
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakIf it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakWhen the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught...
I believe investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often...
Last summer, I recognized an odd phenomenon. An obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was slowly cornering the free float in Bitcoin. This was a result of...
For most of my career, oil demand has grown each year and supply has roughly kept up. Sure, it’s overshot in both directions. We’ve seen shortages and we’ve seen gluts....
At the depths of the COVID crash, I began writing extensively about the equity market ramifications of unlimited fiscal and monetary stimulus. To start with, I believed it was obvious that...
Ever since GameStop (GME – USA) pulled off a Melvinator, I have had various short vol GME option trades on. Often, this was some combination of deep out of the...
I have a friend who’s a reasonably competent trader. He’s the type who draws his voodoo lines everywhere on the charts. He caught the trendline break on Bitcoin around $9,200. He...
View from JOE’s WaterColor Inn Back in June of 2018, I wrote an initial piece on St. Joe (JOE – USA), owner of approximately 175,000 undeveloped acres along with assorted commercial real...
Liberation Day became Liquidation Day. I’ve noted a few times now, that MAGA is decidedly not bullish US equity prices. In fact, in my year-end posting, I mentioned that for...
Emerging Market governments are highly attuned to changes in their bond markets. This is because they risk getting cut off from funding at any sign of stress. Often-times, Emerging Market...
I’m an absolute return investor. I recognize that benchmarks exist, but I also largely ignore them, as I don’t expect my returns to be particularly correlated with any of them....
I started following financial markets during the Asian Financial Crisis. I remember the Fed stepping in as LTCM detonated, and I instantly understood the moral hazard of saving financial institutions...
In the spring of 2022, Jerome Powell declared war on inflation. With the benefit of hindsight, let’s question what exactly he declared war on? Was he upset that the bottom...
Friends, Back in March, I wrote a piece about looking for deep value opportunities, driven by changes in market structure. At the time, I noted that pod shops were creating...
The Great Rotation…