Kuppy's Korner
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I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin...
People really like to complicate things. They worry about non-problems. They over-trade. They over-think. They ignore the obvious. I believe this investing game is actually quite simple—buy unusually cheap companies...
I’ve been pretty clear on why I think oil is going higher. I’ve also been clear that when oil overshoots, I think it’s going to create the next Lehman moment. Oil...
In a few short hours, we’re headed back into the trenches. No sleep for us weary hedgies. They’ve re-set the performance clock at zero and we’ve got to fight our...
Over the past few years, I’ve been highly critical of the Ponzi Sector. This is what I call a whole grouping of companies that has no ability or apparent desire...
A few weeks back, I had dinner with a close friend. Naturally, our conversation turned to the markets (paraphrased). Friend: Kuppy, you need to be careful with those 2025 oil calls....
I believe the vast majority of publicly traded securities are roughly fairly valued. Sure, there may be a 30% or even 50% variance to fair value, but that’s mostly encapsulated...
For four decades, the US stock market has traded up and to the right. During those brief moments of setback, treasuries usually rallied strongly. The fact that these two asset...
A few years back, I was in NYC for meetings. All of a sudden, it started to pour, absolutely Miami style rain. Miraculously, an umbrella vendor popped out of nowhere...
Ever since I can remember, billionaires have been taking private jets to conclaves where they strategized on how to reduce other people’s carbon emissions. At the time, I thought little...
If it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakIf it keeps on rainin’, levee’s goin’ to breakWhen the levee breaks, I’ll have no place to stay. Mean old levee taught...
I believe investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often...
Last summer, I recognized an odd phenomenon. An obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was slowly cornering the free float in Bitcoin. This was a result of...
For most of my career, oil demand has grown each year and supply has roughly kept up. Sure, it’s overshot in both directions. We’ve seen shortages and we’ve seen gluts....
Last month, I chose to strip away all the hubris around AI and ask one simple question, one that oddly no one had really bothered to ask; how much revenue...
I’ve been at this investing game a long time. Long enough to see cycles repeat themselves, cycles that I literally thought I would never again see. Yet in finance, everything...
I like to think of myself as an aggressive investor. I rarely hedge, and I rarely take my net exposure down below 100. More ideas than capital is how I...
Liberation Day became Liquidation Day. I’ve noted a few times now, that MAGA is decidedly not bullish US equity prices. In fact, in my year-end posting, I mentioned that for...
Emerging Market governments are highly attuned to changes in their bond markets. This is because they risk getting cut off from funding at any sign of stress. Often-times, Emerging Market...
The New Levels…