2023 Position Review
It seems that everyone has a blog these days. Once a year, we must stop everything, tally up the scores and see who got it right. Besides, what’s the point of going through all this effort, if you cannot point to the scoreboard, and flaunt it a bit. With that preamble out of the way, […]
The Bigger Short
The Big Short has become a cult classic movie amongst finance guys. Of course, we all know how the story ends, so there’s no suspense. Instead, the movie is a tale of hubris, and the downfall of a bunch of smug guys in suits. Meanwhile, our heroes are the handful of Wall Street misfits who […]
On Breakouts
Let me cut to the chase, I can read a chart, but I would almost never invest based on a chart. In fact, I’ve always been baffled by who it is that buys a “breakout.” Seriously, why pay more than yesterday’s price, when you could have bought it yesterday for less?? What is it that […]
On Inflecting Trends…
As a long-time inflection investor, I’ve learned that many themes simply do not inflect. There are multiple causes for this; often tied to a bad thesis, or a bad set of assumptions. Sometimes, it’s simply bad luck as some other macro trend supersedes my trend. Even when I get it wrong, there is often still […]
Market History Often Rhymes…
I’m often reminded of how Mark Twain was rather prescient in regards to markets. Let’s reminisce a bit, back to a simpler time, when an obscure entity named Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC – USA) was hoovering up Bitcoins on a daily basis. I predicted that eventually, it would acquire enough of the “free float” that […]
On Maxing Out Positions…
I believe the vast majority of publicly traded securities are roughly fairly valued. Sure, there may be a 30% or even 50% variance to fair value, but that’s mostly encapsulated in annual volatility. Unless I’m looking at something with an Event-Driven mindset, where my capital turns over rapidly, I’m mostly uninterested in such meagre expected returns. Honestly, […]
On Staying Liquid…
I believe investing is a game of keeping powder dry and waiting for layups. So many investors miss this lesson. They stay fully invested in middling situations for various reasons—often mental. Who cares if it is at 90% of fair value?? Recycle your capital. Why are you in a business with deteriorating numbers?? Recycle your […]
